Polymarket Odds Surge to 74% for Hormuz Strait Traffic Normalization by End of May

Strait of Hormuz Reopening Drives Prediction Market Confidence

Trading activity on the prediction platform Polymarket shows growing confidence that shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of May 2026. Market participants pushed the probability of normalization to 74%, after briefly reaching a high of 82% following confirmation that the waterway had reopened during a ceasefire period.

The increase in confidence followed statements from Seyed Abbas Araghchi, who announced that commercial vessel traffic through the Strait had been declared fully open for the duration of the ceasefire. According to the announcement, ships are permitted to travel along coordinated maritime routes approved by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization.

Despite improving expectations for May, traders placed the likelihood of full normalization by the end of April at just 40%, reflecting continued uncertainty in the near term.

Bitcoin Gains as Ceasefire Eases Market Fears While Oil Remains Sensitive

The reopening news triggered reactions across financial markets. The price of Bitcoin climbed sharply, briefly reaching $78,000 before stabilizing near $77,358 at the time of reporting. Analysts noted that geopolitical developments linked to Iran significantly influenced both digital assets and energy markets.

Market analyst Nic Puckrin described the ceasefire as “fragile,” warning that unresolved tensions could continue to affect investor sentiment throughout 2026. He added that sustained stability, softer economic data, and declining oil prices toward $80 per barrel would likely be required for Bitcoin to reclaim the $90,000 level.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump stated that the U.S. naval blockade on Iran would remain in place until related negotiations are fully completed, signaling that geopolitical risks and pressure on oil markets—may persist.

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